Uploads from Mathemaniac

Currently Playing: How will the COVID-19 (coronavirus) epidemic end?

When will the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic end? How many people will die from it? How many people will get an infection? How much should you worry about it? This video hopefully can give you a sense of what to expect via a simple mathematical model. It is a standard one with reasonable accuracy, called the SIR model, which illustrates exponential growth / decay depending on the ratio between two constants, called the basic reproduction ratio / number (i.e. R0). The prediction from the model is not that optimistic... We are still in the exponential growth stage, but eventually it has to be a logistic curve, and the video discusses where the plateau will be, and the time scale at which the plateau will be achieved. The video seems to be making a wild claim, but it really isn't. This is what some UK health officials predicted as well: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised?fbclid=IwAR2XWpGi3diiS4rrWwBjtSbOWY8A85THZL7D3w06X17Xlmo9yrF4Z9KW9pk The measures that can be taken to reduce the number of infected individuals, as in the last part of the video, should give enough context to show how seemingly insignificant local measures can have a huge impact, and ultimately persuading the public to stay on alert and take part in those measures described. Sources: The spreadsheet generating the numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14XWEmLefkh-jRiHMeWc8kvM3sk9Q-Mx4EYHHlOSC_1Q/edit?usp=sharing Worldometer statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ SIR model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIR_model Other than commenting on the video, you are very welcome to fill in a Google form linked below, which helps me make better videos by catering for your math levels: https://forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6 If you want to know more interesting Mathematics, stay tuned for the next video! SUBSCRIBE and see you in the next video! If you are wondering how I made all these videos, even though it is stylistically similar to 3Blue1Brown, I don't use his animation engine Manim, but I will probably reveal how I did it in a potential subscriber milestone, so do subscribe! Stay safe everyone! Please do wear a mask to protect ourselves, and stay at home as much as possible. We will get through this together. #coronavirus #COVID_19 #epidemic #mathematics #mathemaniac #math #washyourhands #dontgoout #pandemic #flattenthecurve Social media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mathemaniacyt Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/_mathemaniac_/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/mathemaniacyt For my contact email, check my About page on a PC. See you next time!