The rise and fall

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Curated by: Michael Girdley (121 videos)


Currently Playing: The real reason Applebee's is dying (it's not what you think)

Huge thanks to today's sponsor, Xero, for supporting the channel: https://referrals.xero.com/MichaelGirdley_XeroCollabTwo If you run a business and want a clearer handle on your cash flow, invoicing, and finances without juggling spreadsheets, check them out in the description below. Special Xero offer: Get 90% off for 6 months using this link. Terms & Conditions apply.* Applebee's was once the most recognized casual dining chain in America — 2,000 locations and nearly $4.7 billion in system-wide sales. Today it has roughly 1,500 locations, shrinking same-store sales, and is getting outcompeted on nearly every front by Chili's. This is a breakdown of what went wrong with Applebee's: the debt, the lost control over franchisees, and the leadership decisions that left one of America's biggest chains culturally irrelevant. Get the 2-minute cheat sheet for this video → https://girdley.com/youtube 👇 SUBSCRIBE for more business breakdowns https://www.youtube.com/@Michael-Girdley?sub_confirmation=1 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ► Get my weekly letter to business owners: essential insights to run, grow, and stay ahead in your business → https://links.girdley.com/newsletter-yt ► For sponsorships or inquiries please reach out to: Contact@girdley.com ► Do you have a hat I should wear in a video? Send it to us: Contact@girdley.com ► Free events on all things small business: https://links.girdley.com/lectures-yt ► Deep dives on businesses for sale: https://www.youtube.com/@AcquisitionsAnonymousPodcast ► Follow me on Twitter/X: https://x.com/girdley ------------------------------------------------------------------ Applebee's started in 1980 as TJ Applebee's, an Atlanta restaurant that evolved into the defining neighborhood bar and grill of suburban America. Under franchise-heavy growth led by Abe Gustin, the chain hit $4.5 billion in system sales by 2007. Its positioning was smart: not a fern bar like TGI Fridays, not a Tex-Mex place like Chili's, just a reliable neighborhood spot built around Americana comfort food and a sense of local belonging. The structural decline started with a $2.3 billion acquisition. IHOP Corporation — then a fraction of Applebee's size — bought the chain in 2007, loading up enormous debt onto the combined company. To service that debt, management sold off every remaining company-owned location and financialized the entire royalty stream, turning franchise fees into bonds sold on Wall Street. The effect was immediate and permanent: Applebee's no longer had meaningful control over its own restaurants, and the Wall Street debt holders had no incentive to invest in the brand — only to make sure the payments kept coming. What followed was a decade of strategic drift and wrong bets. Panicking over an aging baby boomer customer base, leadership tried to chase millennials — forcing expensive remodels and menu overhauls onto franchisees who didn't want them. Same-store sales dropped 5% in 2017 and 8% in a single quarter. The stock fell 50% that year. The Dollar Rita ($1 margarita) promo briefly helped corporate's royalty numbers, but it cost franchisees money directly — exposing the fundamental misalignment between a fully-franchised holding company and the operators actually running restaurants on the ground. Chili's, by contrast, owns about 83% of its own locations. That ownership gives it the ability to change menus in six weeks, cut complexity from the menu, and invest in quality. In 2024 and 2025, Chili's grew same-store sales by double digits while Applebee's continued to shrink 4% to 5%. The Applebee's breakdown is a textbook case of how franchising, financialization, and debt can strip a brand of its ability to adapt — and how being fine at everything while great at nothing is a slow path to irrelevance. The business lesson applies to any operator: the middle is where companies go to die. If you can't answer the question of why a customer should choose you over every other option, you don't have a business strategy — you have a building with a sign on it.


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