The War in Ukraine

Welcome to Issues of Contemporary Politics with Dr. Brovkin. Today, my dear subscribers, I would like to talk about the Trump new ultimatum to President Putin, but I shall start with Russian military operations or special military operations. And this is something that has occurred in the last week or 10 days. As always, what I try to do in these uh discussions is to uh rely on uh events and sources that are not covered by mainstream western media or poorly covered or not covered at all. In fact, most of my information actually can be found on YouTube. uh but also on some other uh sources which I uh use such as VK which stands uh for in contact which is a Russian platform a video exchange program and ru uh which is a Russian equivalent of YouTube uh as well as newspapers and publications and various other sources and telegram channels. So anything that I'm going to say to you is not any secret, is any classified or anything. It all can be found in open sources. Now the reason that I want to start with the discussion of Russian special operations is because uh they've intensified in the last 10 days or so and some of them are quite significant that actually show uh first of all what the Russian intentions are in the uh escalation of the crisis over Ukraine but secondly also who the real participants are uh and what role is being played by uh Britain. NATO uh and Germany and others. So um let me just focus on a few recent ones. Uh what you hear in Western media is that the Russians uh as Trump says killing people in Ukraine or as Western media says bombardment of Kev and residential districts and they just repeat the same thing over and over. Whereas in fact uh one of the major blows in the last week was against two airports the military airports with transport planes coming from uh the west from Western Europe. One of them was Star Constantine airport uh which was heavily bombarded by Russian hypersonic missiles and a lot of Western hardware uh was blown up. What's interesting is that in this case, as in so many others, uh the Russians relied on uh special operations groups, which means that this is like Spettznaz uh units that have been sent for reconnaissance and targeting presumably. Uh also, they rely heavily on local support. Uh and that was uh uh this is one of the new ways that they're doing it. So Star Constantine airport is one. The next one was the Kamilnitki Air Force Base which is known uh that this is the major uh airport that receives western deliveries. And according to the report that I saw, a German airplane with war material as soon as it landed was blown up by the incoming Russian missiles, which of course shows that there is intelligence at work that they follow the developments on the ground. Uh and um and that's another special op. Now the third one that I read a lot about is the destruction of Australian cargo. So as we have heard in the western media, Australia decided to send 61 uh Abraham's tanks to Ukraine and many many other things as well. I mean the list is too long for me to read here, but it was a cargo um vessel that was full of Australian hardware. Now the Russian intelligence tracked its um arrival to Turkey uh on on a different vessel and then it was put to the stoages and various other facilities in the ports and then it was reloaded to a different cargo that didn't look any different from any other cargo ship container ship. It was all very much civilianlooking cargo ship that went towards Adessa. Now the Russians tracked it uh and as soon as it entered territorial waters of Ukraine, it was blown up to pieces and it sank immediately. Uh so this was another special op um that um happened in the last 10 days or so. Perhaps the most yeah the next one is uh the tunnel. Uh again uh this one is uh in in the Russian uh telegram channels which they actually provided the photographs uh and I cannot verify whether this is a genuine photos or not but the important thing is it's a it's a it's um tunnel uh in Carpathian mountains presumably linking uh Ukraine and either Poland or Hungary I'm not sure presumably Poland land uh and the the the presence on the ground of Russian special operations is there also verified because they were the ones who uh were coordinating the targeting. Uh and finally the Russian missiles arrived and blew it up in several places at the same time. And uh uh according to the reports there was a lot of uh hardware inside the tunnel which is western mo vehicles and tanks and whatever else they were carrying it was all blown up uh and the tunnel disabled. Uh so this means of course that um this is intensification of Russian special operations and the purpose of course is to stop western war deliveries to Ukraine. That is the purpose. So uh when Trump says that this is a conflict because a lot of people are dying the soldiers are dying and he's such a you know he's such pity on these poor soldiers that he wants to stop the war. Well, to stop the war, one has to stop military supplies or at least to uh to agree to some kind of uh sessation of um military supplies. Uh because otherwise, you know, the Russians would stop and the military supplies would continue and that would be supporting one side over the other. But the most spectacular special military operation in the last days well was is it's 10 days exactly. It was it happened on the 18th of July is the uh uh Russian attack on the uh British base in Oakov. Oakov is the um military base uh on the very close to Crimea. And um I verified this report and there were many many sources on it. So this is not just like one but it was completely ignored in western media like zero nothing whatsoever but many many reports both including on YouTube and on VK contact Russian source. So anyway, what happened was that the three Russian boats with SP special military operation groups, Betsnaz, they crossed the uh channel between Crimea and the continent. Uh and they u disabled the guards and they penetrated into the facility and they kidnapped as they claimed two British officers and one MI6 officer. Um, and they provide their names and I'm not going to go into the names now because if you need to, you can check it on your own. And and that's not my point. The point is that they claim to have seized documents and uh Jack data uh data jack with targeting materials where these officers were uh supposedly participating in uh in targeting shadow missiles on Crimea. uh and of course uh this is uh this is proof that the Russians are collecting on direct participation of Great Britain in these operations. Now the British uh press reported some former British military officer captured in Kursk and of course this is former and they said this is volunteer that he's not has anything to do with with the British army. Now these officers are acting British army officers um and they were targeting Russian territory which strictly speaking could be interpreted as a kazus belly. Um but at least point at this point the Russians are not declaring war on Britain but they are probably in possession of very very uh serious material on the participation of the British intelligence and British officers in bombing Russia. So uh this is all happening in the context of two important strategic events. On the one hand, uh the Americans deployed nuclear missiles in uh Britain and at the same time, President Putin inaugurated a new submarine uh of the Boret class, which is a strategic submarine capable to carry strategic ballistic missiles um that can that could be uh used for uh strategic defense of Russia in case of a war. So this was a major political event uh on the 27th 28th of July. Uh and these two events mark another escalation uh in this so far war of words um not yet a real ones real war. So this brings me to the second part of this presentation which is uh what does it mean that Trump is now saying he had enough and he wants to shorten the um uh the the date from 50 days to 10 days or 12 days. Okay. So if the Russians don't do anything, uh he's going to do secondary sanctions uh on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. Now, one thing that is really strange to me when I hear him is that when people issue an ultimatum, they say that we don't disagree with this and that and unless you change it, we will do this and that. Now, it's clear what he says he's going to do. is going to do what he says, secondary sanctions. But what is not clear, what exactly is he not um happy with? The Russians presented their memorandum. What is it that Trump is not happy with? Uh what does he object to that? Which part of the 33 points? Is he objecting that there are Russians demand four provinces and he's ready for two? Or if he don't accept any Russian territory gains, then say so. We are not accepting any Russian territorial gains. Does he object that Russian language be given a a protection in postwar Ukraine? Yes or no. Does he agree that Russian Orthodox Church has a right to exist? Yes or no. Limitations on Ukrainian uh armed forces? Yes or no. To say simply stop the fighting or else doesn't mean anything at all. So that makes me think that there's something else hiding behind it because it's not serious. It's not a serious um position when you threaten a country with serious sanctions unless they do what? Just stop fighting whatsoever. Um and what and then h happens next 50 years of uh cold war like in North and South Korea. It doesn't make make much sense. But let me go and ex the last thing to discuss with you is what are the chances that he does introduce 100% taxes uh or or tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. So here's the data. I did research on this. The data is that u the revenue from uh oil and gas constitute 27% of Russian budget. 27 percent. Now the entire uh gas and oil exports uh is divided like this. 40% of it goes to China. Uh 20% of it goes to India. 15% of it goes to Turkey through the uh Turkish stream pipeline which in turn uh is sold to European customers such as Greece uh and um Serbia and Hungary uh and so forth and then 10 goes to Brazil or slightly less than 10 and 15 goes to shadow fleet which means Russian tankers which are called shadow there's nothing shadow about it these Russian tankers that that deliver oil through all kinds of intermediaries to a variety of countries uh all over the world. Uh Egypt is one of them as I know. So this is what's going to happen. Uh the Chinese are definitely not going to to comply. They already said it. Said it publicly said it angrily said it to Merkel. I'm sorry to fond the line when he she tried to teach them a lesson how to behave in relation to China to Russia. The Indians most likely also are not going to comply. They I I watch the Indian press and the Indians are saying no we're not going to be taught to like uh Britain and US are are telling us what to do. We're independent country. We value our relationship with Russia. And besides um before they teach us a lesson what to do, they should stop buying Russian oil and gas themselves and they haven't done it and they're buying it through intermediaries just as much as before. So this is what's India responses. Turkey. I doubt seriously very much that Trump is going to uh punish Turkey uh its strategic ally in NATO now that the the relations between the US and Turkey improved slightly now that it's very very important partner in the situation in Syria. Doubt very much that he's going to dare to impose secondary sanctions on uh Turkey. Now the only one that he could actually punish is Brazil. Uh and that is 10% uh of the 100%. Uh now even if it's 20% uh of the Russian oil exports in terms of the revenue it's going to be the fifth the fifth of the 25% is 5%. Can Russia withstand 5% uh diminution or um scaling down of its revenue? Of course, yes. This is not going to change uh Russian finances in a way that it would have any impact on the conduct of the war. So, Mr. Trump, it's not going to work. Your tariffs would only antagonize your partners and friends. um and the potential uh customers of US businesses a and that means this is not going to work. If it is not going to work then why is he doing it? I'm sure that there are people who are qualified to tell him it ain't going to work. Why are you doing it? Well, and that brings me to my final point. It seems to me that it could be that something else is going to to play out. Maybe even uh the coalition of the willing is going to send their troops to Ukraine. Maybe they want to intensify the the western um help to Ukraine. I don't know what it is but obviously we are on the road of escalation that can take unpredictable turns. Uh and finally my dear friends since you listened to the end I would like to tell you that in uh yesterday I had a big big interview about my life uh it was two and a half hours my biography from the very beginning from childhood to my retirement and I'm going to be posting those videos um in in the coming uh weeks in the coming days I'm going to start so uh please watch for those uh and they will be under the personal narratives playlist. And I remind you I have many playlists. If you are interested in history, it's going to be European history and Russian history and Soviet history and postsviet history and personal narratives. Please subscribe to my channel, watch my videos, and of course uh read my books. Thank you. Until next time, goodbye.